Will the year end rally come to fruition?
With equities currently at all time highs we remain optimistic that additional upside
should come to fruition however higher incremental rates and the continued strength of the USD will likely increase market risks and volatility, specifically on companies with global exposure will likely be negatively impacted should the upward surge in the USD continue.
The inverse relationship between USD strength and earnings will significantly impact earnings per share on companies with global exposure especially companies with significant expenditures on materials and energy. Also, equity prices of multinational companies have moved aggressively higher due to multi-year lows in bond yields and companies with exposure to staples, real estate including telecoms and utilities will likely destabilize equity multiples on firms that are particularly rate sensitive s
As the New Year approaches prices in equities are likely to remain flat to modestly higher as many fund managers, institutional investors and portfolio managers will be reluctant to sell before 2017. That said, we anticipate profit taking during January 2017 as traders take advantage of an overbought market.
Over the long-term, the ratio of stocks vs bonds generally is in favor of stocks over bonds. However investors who are concerned with a shorter time frame should be cautious as this ratio is approaching a previous resistance top from 2013 where it will likely find formidable resistance.
Noteworthy is the widely followed relative strength indicator in relation to the (14 week RSI) has become stretched as it exceeded 70 for the first time in 3 years and is already beginning to pullback or stall as it did back then when this ratio became over heated.
The fact that the formation above appears to be a bull flag may likely turn out to be the beginning of a mean reversion considering the high volume that has accompanied this pattern formation. The transportation sector also has neared a resistance zone from last year as investors began a rotation out of bond proxies and may likely digest gains here as the ratio needs to pull back.
Investors should be wary of Chinese stocks at this time as Chinese Bond yields are surging on the back of continued depreciation of the Chinese Yuan which will place downward pressure on Chinese related stocks, investors already invested in Chinese stocks should be hedging against the risk of a depreciating currency.
Investors in the DT Group have enjoyed another record breaking week as we locked gains in some of the following names:
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Micron (MU) +92% Gain (Timestamp alert at 9:47 AM - 16 Dec 2016)
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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD +135% Gain (Timestamp alert at 9:55 AM - 12 Dec 2016)
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VanEck Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) +575% Gain (Timestamp alert at 10:00 AM - 12 Dec 2016)
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Bank of America (BAC) +91% Gain (Timestamp alert at11:07 AM 14 Dec 2016)
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Apple, Inc (AAPL) +206% Gain (Timestamp alert at 9:42 AM - 15 Dec 2016)
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Financial Select Sector (XLF) +1,183% Gain (Timestamp alert at 2:11 PM - 8 Dec 2016)
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SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) +12% Gain (Timestamp alert at 1:21 PM - 16 Dec 2016)
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S&P 500 large Cap Index (SPX) +82% Gain (Timestamp alert at 9:36 AM - 13 Dec 2016)
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iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) +85% Gain (Timestamp alert at 11:31 AM - 8 Dec 2016)
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Facebook, Inc (FB) +67% Gain (Timestamp alert at 9:51 AM - 9 Dec 2016)
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Home Depot, Inc (HD) +38% Gain (Timestamp alert at 9:51 AM - 9 Dec 2016)
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Amazon, Inc (AMZN) +15% Gain (Timestamp alert at 9:50 AM - 13 Dec 2016)
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Netflix, Inc (NFLX) +27% Gain (Timestamp alert at 10:37 AM - 13 Dec 2016)
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Tesla Motors, Inc (TSLA) +50% Gain (Timestamp alert at10:47 AM - 16 Dec 2016)
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Apple, Inc (AAPL) +148% Gain (Timestamp alert at 11:17 AM - 12 Dec 2016)
The #time stamped & #verified swing trades & day trades w/stock options above were sent to members in real time both entries & exits
Happy Holidays!
Investors should expect the major averages to return to the rising trendline depicted above in the transportation sector